Imaging gravity waves in lower stratospheric AMSU-A radiances, Part 1: simple forward model

International audienceUsing a simplified model of in-orbit radiance acquisition by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A), we derive three-dimensional temperature weighting functions for Channel 9 measurements (peaking at ~60?90 hPa) at all 30 cross-track beam positions and use them to investigate the sensitivity of these radiances to gravity waves. The vertical widths of the weighting functions limit detection to waves with vertical wavelengths of ?10 km, with slightly better vertical wavelength sensitivity at the outermost scan angles due to the limb effect. Fourier Transforms of two-dimensional cross-track weighting functions reveal optimal sensitivity to cross-track wavelengths at the near-nadir scan angles, where horizontal measurement footprints are smallest. This sensitivity is greater for the AMSU-A on the Aqua satellite than for the identical instruments on the NOAA meteorological satellites, due to a lower orbit altitude and thus smaller horizontal footprints from antenna spreading. Small cross-track asymmetries in the radiance response to gravity waves are found that peak at the mid-range scan angles, with more symmetric responses at near-nadir and far off-nadir scan angles. Three-dimensional simulations show gravity wave oscillations imaged in horizontal AMSU-A radiance maps swept out by the scan pattern and satellite motion. A distorting curvature is added to imaged wave phase lines due to vertical variations in weighting function peaks with cross-track scan angle. This wave distortion is analogous to the well-known ''limb darkening'' and ''limb brightening'' of microwave radiances acquired from purely vertical background temperature profiles by cross-track scanners. Waves propagating along track are more visible in these images at the outermost scan angles than those propagating cross track, due to oversampling and narrower widths of the horizontal measurement footprints in the along track direction. Based on nominal noise floors and representative lower stratospheric wave temperature amplitudes, our modeling indicates that Channel 9 AMSU-A radiances can resolve and horizontally image gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of ?150 km and vertical wavelengths of ?10 km

CHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models

The new CHEM2D-Ozone Photochemistry Parameterization (CHEM2D-OPP) for high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and climate models specifies the net ozone photochemical tendency and its sensitivity to changes in ozone mixing ratio, temperature and overhead ozone column based on calculations from the CHEM2D interactive middle atmospheric photochemical transport model. We evaluate CHEM2D-OPP performance using both short-term (6-day) and long-term (1-year) stratospheric ozone simulations with the prototype high-altitude NOGAPS-ALPHA forecast model. An inter-comparison of NOGAPS-ALPHA 6-day ozone hindcasts for 7 February 2005 with ozone photochemistry parameterizations currently used in operational NWP systems shows that CHEM2D-OPP yields the best overall agreement with both individual Aura Microwave Limb Sounder ozone profile measurements and independent hemispheric (10°–90° N) ozone analysis fields. A 1-year free-running NOGAPS-ALPHA simulation using CHEM2D-OPP produces a realistic seasonal cycle in zonal mean ozone throughout the stratosphere. We find that the combination of a model cold temperature bias at high latitudes in winter and a warm bias in the CHEM2D-OPP temperature climatology can degrade the performance of the linearized ozone photochemistry parameterization over seasonal time scales despite the fact that the parameterized temperature dependence is weak in these regions

Gravity Wave Variances and Propagation Derived from AIRS Radiances

As the first gravity wave (GW) climatology study using nadir-viewing infrared sounders, 50 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance channels are selected to estimate GW variances at pressure levels between 2-100 hPa. The GW variance for each scan in the cross-track direction is derived from radiance perturbations in the scan, independently of adjacent scans along the orbit. Since the scanning swaths are perpendicular to the satellite orbits, which are inclined meridionally at most latitudes, the zonal component of GW propagation can be inferred by differencing the variances derived between the westmost and the eastmost viewing angles. Consistent with previous GW studies using various satellite instruments, monthly mean AIRS variance shows large enhancements over meridionally oriented mountain ranges as well as some islands at winter hemisphere high latitudes. Enhanced wave activities are also found above tropical deep convective regions. GWs prefer to propagate westward above mountain ranges, and eastward above deep convection. AIRS 90 field-of-views (FOVs), ranging from +48 deg. to 48 deg. off nadir, can detect large-amplitude GWs with a phase velocity propagating preferentially at steep angles (e.g., those from orographic and convective sources). The annual cycle dominates the GW variances and the preferred propagation directions for all latitudes. Indication of a weak two-year variation in the tropics is found, which is presumably related to the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). AIRS geometry makes its out-tracks capable of detecting GWs with vertical wavelengths substantially shorter than the thickness of instrument weighting functions. The novel discovery of AIRS capability of observing shallow inertia GWs will expand the potential of satellite GW remote sensing and provide further constraints on the GW drag parameterization schemes in the general circulation models (GCMs)

Influence of mountain waves and NAT nucleation mechanisms on Polar Stratospheric Cloud formation at local and synoptic scales during the 1999?2000 Arctic winter

International audienceA scheme for introducing mountain wave-induced temperature pertubations in a microphysical PSC model has been developed. A data set of temperature fluctuations attributable to mountain waves as computed by the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM-2) has been used for the study. The PSC model has variable microphysics, enabling different nucleation mechanisms for nitric acid trihydrate, NAT, to be employed. In particular, the difference between the formation of NAT and ice particles in a scenario where NAT formation is not dependent on preexisting ice particles, allowing NAT to form at temperatures above the ice frost point, Tice, and a scenario, where NAT nucleation is dependent on preexisting ice particles, is examined. The performance of the microphysical model in the different microphysical scenarios and a number of temperature scenarios with and without the influence of mountain waves is tested through comparisons with lidar measurements of PSCs made from the NASA DC-8 on 23 and 25 January during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign in the 1999?2000 winter and the effect of mountain waves on local PSC production is evaluated in the different microphysical scenarios. Mountain wave-induced temperature fluctuations are introduced in vortex-covering model runs, extending the full 1999?2000 winter season, and the effect of mountain waves on large-scale PSC production is estimated in the different microphysical scenarios

Regional Distribution of Mesospheric Small‐Scale Gravity Waves During DEEPWAVE

The Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment project took place in June and July 2014 in New Zealand. Its overarching goal was to study gravity waves (GWs) as they propagate from the ground up to ~100 km, with a large number of ground‐based, airborne, and satellite instruments, combined with numerical forecast models. A suite of three mesospheric airglow imagers operated onboard the NSF Gulfstream V (GV) aircraft during 25 nighttime flights, recording the GW activity at OH altitude over a large region (\u3e7,000,000 km2). Analysis of this data set reveals the distribution of the small‐scale GW mean power and direction of propagation. GW activity occurred everywhere and during every flight, even over open oceans with no neighboring tropospheric sources. Over the mountainous regions (New Zealand, Tasmania, isolated islands), mean power reached high values (more than 100 times larger than over the waters), but with a considerable variability. This variability existed from day to day over the same region, but even during the same flight, depending on forcing strength and on the middle atmosphere conditions. Results reveal a strong correlation between tropospheric sources, satellite stratospheric measurements, and mesosphere lower thermosphere airglow observations. The large‐amplitude GWs only account for a small amount of the total (~6%), even though they carry the most momentum and energy. The weaker wave activity measured over the oceans might originate from distance sources (polar vortex, weather fronts), implying that a ducted mechanism helped for their long range propagation

Better informing decision making with multiple outcomes cost-effectiveness analysis under uncertainty in ost-disutility space

© 2015 McCaffrey et al. Introduction: Comparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and nonhealth outcomes, while partial analyses - where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored - lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies. Objective: The objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison. Methods: Multiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL.Results: Conventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home ( K1) exceeds 1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when K1=2,000 and K2=2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective. Conclusion: Comparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions

Effects of model chemistry and data biases on stratospheric ozone assimilation

The innovations or observation minus forecast (O–F) residuals produced by a data assimilation system provide a convenient metric of evaluating global analyses. In this study, O–F statistics from the Global Ozone Assimilation Testing System (GOATS) are used to examine how ozone assimilation products and their associated O–F statistics depend on input data biases and ozone photochemistry parameterizations (OPP). All the GOATS results shown are based on a 6-h forecast and analysis cycle using observations from SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument-2) during September–October 2002. Results show that zonal mean ozone analyses are more independent of observation biases and drifts when using an OPP, while the mean ozone O–Fs are more sensitive to observation drifts when using an OPP. In addition, SD O–Fs (standard deviations) are reduced in the upper stratosphere when using an OPP due to a reduction of forecast model noise and to increased covariance between the forecast model and the observations. Experiments that changed the OPP reference state to match the observations by using an "adaptive" OPP scheme reduced the mean ozone O–Fs at the expense of zonal mean ozone analyses being more susceptible to data biases and drifts. Additional experiments showed that the upper boundary of the ozone DAS can affect the quality of the ozone analysis and therefore should be placed well above (at least a scale height) the region of interest

Preliminary development and validation of a new endof-life patient-reported outcome measure assessing the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life

Introduction:The ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life is an often neglected aspect of quality of life (QOL) measurement in palliative care effectiveness research despite compelling evidence of the high value patients place on this domain. Objective: This paper describes the preliminary development and evaluation of a new, single-item, end-of-life patientreported outcome measure (EOLPRO) designed to capture changes in the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life. Methods: Cognitive interviews with purposively sampled Australian palliative care patients (N = 9) were analysed thematically to explore content validity. Simultaneously, secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial comparing ketamine and placebo for the management of cancer pain (N = 185) evaluated: construct validity; test-retest reliability; and responsiveness. Results:Preliminary findings suggest patients interpret the new measure consistently. The EOLPRO captures the ability to complete physical tasks and finalise practical matters although it is unclear whether emotional tasks or resolution of relationship issues are considered. Personal and financial affairs should be separated to allow for differences in ability for these two types of affairs. The significant correlation between performance status and EOLPRO scores (r = 0.41, p,<.01, n = 137) and expected relationships between EOLPRO and proximity to death and constipation demonstrated construct validity. Pre-and post-treatment EOLPRO scores moderately agreed (n = 14, k = 0.52 [95% CI 0.19, 0.84]) supporting reliability. The measure's apparent lack of sensitivity to discriminate between treatment responders and non-responders may be confounded. Conclusion:Based on the preliminary findings, the EOLPRO should be separated into 'personal' and 'financial' affairs with further testing suggested, particularly to verify coverage and responsiveness. Initial evaluation suggests that the single-item EOLPRO is a useful addition to QOL outcome measurement in palliative care effectiveness research because common palliative care specific QOL questionnaires do not include or explicitly capture this domain. © 2014 McCaffrey et al

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess the efficacy and toxicity of subcutaneous ketamine in the management of cancer pain

Purpose: The anesthetic ketamine is widely used for pain related to cancer, but the evidence to support its use in this setting is weak. This study aimed to determine whether ketamine is more effective than placebo when used in conjunction with opioids and standard adjuvant therapy in the management of chronic uncontrolled cancer pain. Ketamine would be considered of net benefit if it provided clinically relevant improvement in pain with limited breakthrough analgesia and acceptable toxicity. Patients and Methods: In this multisite, dose-escalation, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled phase III trial, ketamine or placebo was delivered subcutaneously over 3 to 5 days. Results: In all, 185 participants were included in the primary analysis. There was no significant difference between the proportion of positive outcomes (0.04; 95% CI, -0.10 to 0.18; P = .55) in the placebo and intervention arms (response rates, 27% [25 of 92] and 31% [29 of 93]). Pain type (nociceptive v neuropathic) was not a predictor of response. There was almost twice the incidence of adverse events worse than baseline in the ketamine group after day 1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.61; P < .001) and throughout the study. Those receiving ketamine were more likely to experience a more severe grade of adverse event per day (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.18; P = .039). The number of patients needed to treat for one additional patient to have a positive outcome from ketamine was 25 (95% CI, six to ∞). The number needed to harm, because of toxicity-related withdrawal, was six (95% CI, four to 13). Conclusion: Ketamine does not have net clinical benefit when used as an adjunct to opioids and standard coanalgesics in cancer pain. © 2012 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model

International audienceThe forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February, 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data